🕒 Last Updated: 21 May 2026 – Polling day is Thursday 18 June 2026. Nominations close today, 21 May. Odds and market information correct at time of last update.
Labour are priced at 8/13 to hold Makerfield, with Reform UK at 7/4 and Restore Britain now a 9/1 shot following the announcement of local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as their candidate. The contest is scheduled for Thursday 18 June 2026, with nominations closing today, 21 May, and the voter registration deadline on 3 June.
Makerfield By-Election Winner Odds
| Party / Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour (Andy Burnham) | 8/13 | 61.9% |
| Reform UK (Robert Kenyon) | 7/4 | 36.4% |
| Restore Britain (Rebecca Shepherd) | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Green Party | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| Conservatives | 250/1 | 0.4% |
| Liberal Democrats | 250/1 | 0.4% |
The by-election was triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons, who formally resigned his seat on 18 May 2026, appointed Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds, to allow Burnham a route back to Parliament. It is the first by-election in over 60 years specifically triggered to provide a seat for a politician not currently in Parliament, the last being the 1965 Leyton by-election called for Patrick Gordon Walker. Burnham, who has lived in the area for 25 years, has confirmed he will contest the seat and has said constituents in Makerfield “have been let down by national politics.”
Reform UK’s candidate is Robert Kenyon, who stood for the party in Makerfield at the 2024 General Election, where he finished second behind Simons. The 2026 local elections saw Reform take 30% of the vote across Greater Manchester, with Labour falling to 23% in the same geography, a result that underlines why this contest is not a formality for Labour despite Burnham’s personal popularity.
Why Makerfield Matters for Andy Burnham
As Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham is not currently an MP. Winning Makerfield is the essential prerequisite for any future Labour leadership bid. He is currently evens favourite to be the next Prime Minister, a market position that depends almost entirely on him returning to the Commons. A win on 18 June would sharply accelerate the pressure on Keir Starmer, who is 1/7 to leave office in 2026.
Burnham was previously blocked by Labour’s NEC from contesting the Gorton and Denton by-election, in a vote that included Starmer himself. That seat was won by the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer, with Reform second and Labour third, a result that forms the backdrop to Simons’ decision to stand aside. Burnham’s camp viewed the NEC block as a deliberate attempt to prevent his return, and the contrast with the welcome he has received in Makerfield adds political colour to what is already a nationally significant contest.
The Restore Britain candidacy adds a further element of uncertainty by potentially splitting right-of-centre votes between Reform and Shepherd’s party, which could benefit Burnham if the anti-Labour vote fragments sufficiently.
