🕒 Last Updated: 18 May 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
The Makerfield by-election market has shifted significantly following confirmation that local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd will stand as the Restore Britain candidate. The party entered the market at 50/1 before shortening to 33/1, and has since been cut to 9/1 following a surge of betting support, giving them an implied probability of 10.0% to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets in recent by-election history.
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 8/13 | 61.9% |
| Reform UK | 7/4 | 36.4% |
| Restore Britain | 9/1 | 10.0% |
Would Restore Britain Split the Reform Makerfield Vote?
Restore Britain began life in 2025 as a political pressure group before formally becoming a party earlier this year following Rupert Lowe’s split from Reform UK. The party positions itself as an alternative voice on the political right and is expected to target disillusioned Reform supporters during the campaign.
The market reaction to Shepherd’s selection has been notable. Betting activity around Restore Britain accelerated rapidly, with punters viewing the 50/1 and 33/1 prices as generous given the party’s potential appeal to right-leaning voters in the constituency.
Rupert Lowe is expected to campaign heavily in Makerfield alongside Shepherd, increasing speculation that Restore Britain could damage Reform UK’s chances by splitting support among similar voters. That scenario would benefit Labour and, in particular, Andy Burnham. Every percentage point taken away from Reform UK improves Labour’s position in what is already expected to be one of the most closely watched by-elections of 2026. The opening Makerfield market had Labour at 4/6 in a straight fight with Reform, before Restore Britain’s entry changed the picture.
Polling data adds further context. Early indications suggest Reform UK would have been favourites in a standard Labour versus Reform race, but Burnham’s personal popularity appears to significantly alter the picture. Research carried out in the aftermath of the Gorton and Denton by-election found that Burnham’s appeal extended to voters well beyond Labour’s traditional base, with significant numbers of both Reform and Green supporters indicating they would have considered backing him personally had he been on the ballot there.
Labour have shortened to 8/13 and Reform have drifted to 7/4 since Shepherd’s candidacy was announced. Much of that movement appears directly linked to Restore Britain’s emergence as a potential disruptive third force.
The result will also carry weight beyond the constituency. Keir Starmer’s position as Labour leader is under sustained pressure and a Burnham victory in Makerfield would immediately reshape the leadership picture, with bookmakers likely to cut his odds sharply in both the next Labour leader market and the next Prime Minister betting. Conversely, a Reform win or a narrow Labour hold would intensify questions about whether Reform’s general election favouritism is well-founded.
