🕒 Last Updated: 21 May 2026 – Polling day is Thursday 18 June 2026. Nominations close today. Odds correct at time of last update.
The Makerfield by-election market has shifted significantly following confirmation that local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd will stand as the Restore Britain candidate. The party entered the market at 50/1 before shortening to 33/1, and has since been cut to 9/1 following a surge of betting support.
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour (Andy Burnham) | 8/13 | 61.9% |
| Reform UK (Robert Kenyon) | 7/4 | 36.4% |
| Restore Britain (Rebecca Shepherd) | 9/1 | 10.0% |
Would Restore Britain Split the Reform Makerfield Vote?
Restore Britain began life in 2025 as a political pressure group before formally becoming a party earlier this year following Rupert Lowe’s split from Reform UK. The party positions itself as an alternative voice on the political right and is expected to target disillusioned Reform supporters during the campaign.
The market reaction to Shepherd’s selection has been notable. Betting activity around Restore Britain accelerated rapidly, with punters viewing the 50/1 and 33/1 prices as generous given the party’s potential appeal to right-leaning voters in the constituency. Rupert Lowe is expected to campaign heavily in Makerfield alongside Shepherd, increasing speculation that Restore Britain could damage Reform UK’s chances by splitting support among similar voters.
That scenario would benefit Labour and Andy Burnham in particular. Every percentage point taken away from Reform UK improves Labour’s position in a contest that is already attracting significant national attention. The opening Makerfield market had Labour at 4/6 in a straight fight with Reform, before Restore Britain’s entry changed the picture.
Early indications suggest Burnham’s personal popularity significantly alters the contest beyond what standard party polling would suggest. Research after the Gorton and Denton by-election found substantial numbers of both Reform and Green supporters who said they would have considered backing him personally had he been on the ballot there.
Labour have shortened from 4/6 to 8/13 and Reform have drifted from 5/4 to 7/4 since Shepherd’s candidacy was announced. Much of that movement appears directly linked to Restore Britain’s emergence as a potential disruptive third force. Nominations close today, 21 May, with polling day confirmed for 18 June 2026.
The result will carry weight well beyond Makerfield. Keir Starmer is 1/7 to leave office in 2026 and a Burnham victory would immediately reshape the leadership picture. A Reform win or narrow Labour hold would intensify questions about whether Reform’s general election favouritism is well-founded and accelerate internal pressure for Starmer’s departure regardless.
