🕒 Last Updated: 21 May 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
Reform UK are odds-on favourites at 10/11 to win the most seats at the next UK General Election, a position they have held since the May local elections. The latest PollCheck 7-poll moving average (20 May) puts Reform on 27.9% — their highest sustained level — with Conservatives on 18.3% and Labour on 18.1%. The two traditional parties of government are now effectively level in the polls, a scenario that would transform the parliamentary arithmetic. These figures are reflected in the general election odds.
General Election Odds
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 10/11 | 52.4% |
| Labour | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Conservatives | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Green Party | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Restore Britain | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Reform’s local election performance was the catalyst for the market move to odds-on. The party won the national popular vote and posted significant gains across England, including 30% of the vote across Greater Manchester wards — the same geography where the Makerfield by-election on 18 June will be fought.
The internal Labour crisis has added a second driver to the odds movement. Wes Streeting has resigned as Health Secretary, 90+ Labour MPs have publicly called for Keir Starmer’s resignation, and 72% of Oddschecker bets on the next election date are now backing 2026. A change of Labour leader would not automatically trigger a general election, but the political instability is feeding directly into market pricing.
Andy Burnham is now evens favourite to be the next Prime Minister, having moved sharply from 5/2 earlier this month. Angela Rayner is 9/4 with some bookmakers. The market is increasingly pricing in a scenario where Labour changes leader before the next election — and whether that is enough to close Reform’s lead is the central question now driving activity across the politics betting markets.
William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps has noted that Reform’s local election performance transformed the betting picture overnight, pushing the party into outright favouritism. He also highlighted that pressure on Starmer is being reflected directly in Labour leadership and next Prime Minister betting, with Burnham the standout mover.
