Reform UK’s strong performance in this week’s local elections has dramatically reshaped the political betting markets, with William Hill now making Nigel Farage’s party odds-on favourites to win the most seats at the next UK General Election.
Reform are priced at 10/11, giving them an implied probability of 52.4% to emerge as the largest party. Labour have drifted to 5/2, which represents a 28.6% chance, while the Conservatives sit further back at 6/1 with an implied probability of 14.3%. The Green Party are also beginning to attract attention at 7/1, while Restore are available at 10/1.
General Election Odds
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 10/11 | 52.4% |
| Labour | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Conservatives | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Green Party | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Restore | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Bar | 33/1 | 2.9% |
The latest market moves reflect just how quickly the political landscape is shifting following the local election results. Reform’s gains have increased pressure on Labour and intensified speculation over Sir Keir Starmer’s future.
That uncertainty is already feeding into Labour leadership betting. Angela Rayner has eased slightly to 5/2 from 9/4 to replace Starmer, while Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has shortened from 7/2 into the same price. Both are now viewed as leading contenders should Labour face a leadership contest in the near future.
The same pattern is emerging in the next Prime Minister market, where Rayner and Burnham are now joint favourites at 9/4, each implying a 30.8% chance of eventually reaching Number 10.
Meanwhile, bookmakers believe the most likely timeframe for Starmer to step down could come later this year. The market now points towards July to September 2026 as the likeliest period for his departure, priced at 5/4 and implying a 44.4% chance. April to June is available at 4/1, while October to December is 5/1. Odds of 9/4 suggest there is still a possibility he survives into 2027 or beyond.
William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps said Reform’s local election performance had transformed the betting picture overnight, pushing Farage’s party into outright favouritism to win the most seats at the next General Election.
He also noted that pressure on Starmer is now being reflected directly in Labour leadership and next Prime Minister betting, with both Rayner and Burnham seeing significant support in recent days.
With Reform gaining momentum and Labour facing mounting scrutiny, the political betting markets are pointing towards a period of major uncertainty at the top of British politics.
