🕒 Last Updated: 21 May 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
Andy Burnham has moved to evens in the next Prime Minister market, from 9/5 just ten days ago and 12/1 in March, following a week of rapid political deterioration for Keir Starmer. Wes Streeting has resigned as Health Secretary, Catherine West has launched a formal stalking-horse leadership bid, and nominations for the Makerfield by-election close today, 21 May, with polling day confirmed for 18 June 2026.
Andy Burnham Next Prime Minister Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | Evens | 50.0% |
| Angela Rayner | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Wes Streeting | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| Nigel Farage | 6/1 | 14.3% |
Burnham’s positioning is distinct in the current Labour field. He combines strong approval among party members with genuine cross-party appeal. Research carried out after the Gorton and Denton by-election found significant numbers of both Reform and Green voters who said they would consider backing him personally. No other Labour figure currently matches that profile. His route to the leadership remains dependent on winning Makerfield, after he was blocked by the NEC from contesting Gorton and Denton. That contest was won by the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer, with Reform second and Labour third, a result that formed the backdrop to Josh Simons stepping aside to create this new opportunity.
The Streeting resignation has changed the picture considerably. His departure was accompanied by a public statement that he had “lost confidence” in Starmer’s leadership, the clearest signal yet from a senior cabinet figure that the Labour leadership is contested ground. Streeting is now positioned to run himself should a contest open, which explains why his market odds have improved at the same time as his departure strengthens Burnham’s case as the more unifying figure.
The Starmer exit date market now prices him at 1/7 to leave in 2026, with July to September the 4/6 favourite window. The market consensus is that Makerfield acts as a staging post. A Burnham win on 18 June would be the most likely single event to accelerate Starmer’s departure and formally open the race. Reform remain odds-on at 10/11 to win the most seats at the next general election, underlining why Labour’s internal situation carries such urgency.
