Keir Starmer resigned as Prime Minister on Monday morning, announcing the decision outside Downing Street and describing becoming PM as the “proudest moment of my life.”
The news sent the betting markets into immediate motion, and Andy Burnham is now the red-hot 1/50 favourite to succeed him in Downing Street.
The Labour leadership contest is expected to get underway next month, with the winner automatically becoming Prime Minister given that Labour remains the largest party in parliament.
Next Prime Minister Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 1/50 |
| Angela Rayner | 25/1 |
| Wes Streeting | 25/1 |
| Ed Miliband | 25/1 |
| Alistair Carns | 25/1 |
| Bar | 33/1 |
Why Burnham Is Such a Short Price
Burnham has been linked with the top job in Labour politics for some time.
Media speculation around his ambitions has been building for months, and his high profile as Mayor of Greater Manchester, combined with his strong personal poll ratings, has made him the clear frontrunner in the minds of both the bookmakers and the wider political commentariat.
William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps said: “Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation has paved the way for Andy Burnham to take his place on Downing Street, and we now expect Labour (6/4) to win more seats than Reform UK (7/4) at the next general election as a result.”
At 1/50, backing Burnham to become the next Prime Minister offers almost no financial return, so the smarter play is to look at the general election market and the individual candidates at longer prices if you think there is any chance of a surprise during the leadership contest.
What Does This Mean for the Next General Election?
Starmer’s resignation has had an immediate impact on the general election market. William Hill now price Labour at 6/4 to win more seats than Reform UK at the next election, with Reform 7/4.
That is a significant shift, suggesting the bookmakers believe Burnham in charge gives Labour a much better chance of holding off the Reform challenge.
The most likely outcome at the next general election remains a hung parliament, priced at 4/7.
Labour winning a majority and Reform winning a majority are both 4/1, reflecting just how unpredictable the political landscape is even with Burnham expected to take charge.
For more on the general election market, see our Reform UK general election odds and our full next Prime Minister market breakdown.
For the latest on the Makerfield by-election, which Burnham recently won before Starmer’s resignation changed the political picture entirely, see our Makerfield by-election odds article and our earlier piece on Andy Burnham’s PM odds shortening.
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