🕒 Last Updated: 29 March 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
Reform UK have been installed as 6/4 favourites to win the most seats at the next General Election, as fresh polling highlights one of the most fragmented fields in modern UK electoral history. The latest YouGov voting intention figures show Reform leading on 23% of the vote, despite a slight two-point drop. Labour have closed the gap to 19%, the Greens sit just behind on 18%, the Conservatives remain in contention on 17%, and the Liberal Democrats trail on 13%.
These shifts point to a volatile electorate rather than a clear frontrunner. Reform remain ahead but without a commanding lead, while Labour’s recent uptick suggests growing momentum, something also reflected in markets such as Angela Rayner’s shortening odds to become the next Labour leader. The broader rise of Reform continues to be tracked in betting on whether Reform could lead the 2026 UK local elections, highlighting their growing influence across multiple voting contests.
General Election Odds
| Party | Odds | Chance of Election |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Labour | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Green | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Conservatives | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Restore Britain | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Liberal Democrats | 28/1 | 3.4% |
| Your Party | 175/1 | 0.6% |
| Advance UK | 275/1 | 0.4% |
The presence of emerging parties such as Restore Britain (12/1) further complicates the picture, adding another layer of unpredictability to the outcome. With no clear majority favourite and multiple parties within striking distance, the next election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in decades. That uncertainty is also reflected in leadership markets, with ongoing movement in the next Prime Minister betting after Keir Starmer as speculation continues over how things could evolve in the coming year.
