Reform UK have been installed as 6/4 favourites to win the most seats at the next General Election, as fresh polling highlights one of the most fragmented political landscapes in modern UK history.
The latest YouGov voting intention figures underline just how open the race has become, with five major parties separated by just nine percentage points. Reform UK continue to lead the way on 23% of the vote, despite a slight two-point drop. Labour have closed the gap to 19% after gaining ground, while the Greens sit just behind on 18%. The Conservatives remain in contention on 17%, with the Liberal Democrats trailing on 13%, their joint lowest level of this parliament.
These shifts point to a volatile electorate rather than a clear frontrunner. Reform remain ahead but without a commanding lead, while Labour’s recent uptick suggests growing momentum, something also reflected in markets such as Angela Rayner’s shortening odds to become the next Labour leader.
The broader rise of Reform continues to be tracked in betting on whether Reform could lead the 2026 UK local elections, highlighting their growing influence across multiple voting contests.
Despite leading the polls, Reform’s 23% share remains relatively modest, reinforcing the sense that no party has broken away from the pack. This has created a highly competitive betting market for which party will win the most seats, with several contenders still firmly in the race.
General Election Odds
| Party | Odds | Chance of Election |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Labour | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Green | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Conservatives | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Restore Britain | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Liberal Democrats | 28/1 | 3.4% |
| Your Party | 175/1 | 0.6% |
| Advance UK | 275/1 | 0.4% |
The presence of emerging parties such as Restore Britain further complicates the picture.
Interest in alternatives to the traditional parties is growing, as seen in markets assessing Restore Britain’s chances of winning the next General Election, adding another layer of unpredictability to the outcome.
With no clear majority favourite and multiple parties within striking distance, the next election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in decades.
That uncertainty is also reflected in leadership markets, with ongoing movement in the next Prime Minister betting after Keir Starmer as speculation continues over how the political landscape could evolve in the coming year.
