🕒 Last Updated: 24 March 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
Bookmakers are increasingly sceptical about Sir Keir Starmer’s chances of leading Labour into the next General Election, with betting markets pointing towards a potential leadership change before the country returns to the polls.
What are the odds on Angela Rayner to be next Labour Leader?
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Wes Streeting | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| Ed Miliband | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Andy Burnham | 17/2 | 10.5% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Sadiq Khan | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Yvette Cooper | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Momentum in the next Labour leader market has swung firmly behind Angela Rayner, who has seen strong backing from punters in recent weeks. At one stage, she accounted for 78% of all bets placed, triggering a sharp move in her price and installing her as the clear favourite. Rayner’s odds were cut significantly as a result, while former frontrunner Wes Streeting drifted. Several major bookmakers still have Rayner at the head of the betting, underlining growing confidence that she could be next in line if a leadership contest is triggered.
The renewed interest in Rayner comes after Starmer publicly suggested she could return to a more prominent frontline role “at the right point”, a comment that has only fuelled speculation about internal positioning within the party. External pressure has intensified simultaneously. Recent shifts in the latest Mayor of London betting odds highlight changing sentiment in the capital, while nationally there has been growing interest in alternatives, reflected in the current betting on Restore Britain’s chances at the next General Election.
Starmer has faced a challenging period, with a series of policy U-turns including abandoning plans to raise income tax raising questions about leadership consistency. Markets are now pricing in the possibility of change, as seen in the latest odds on whether Keir Starmer could resign this year. With the next General Election not required until August 2029, there is still time for the narrative to shift. But based on current betting trends, Starmer’s chances of remaining Labour leader through to the next vote appear to be under increasing doubt. For the latest odds update on Rayner, see our Angela Rayner podcast analysis.
