🕒 Last Updated: 10 February 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
Pressure on Keir Starmer has intensified after fresh betting markets made the Labour leader just 1/4 to resign in 2026, following the departure of his Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney. According to the latest odds from UK bookie Star Sports, Starmer is also 1/6 not to be Prime Minister at the next General Election, underlining how quickly confidence in his leadership has ebbed amid growing unrest within the party.
Angela Rayner has surged to the head of the next Labour leader market and is the clear favourite to become the next permanent Labour leader, shortening to 9/4 from 13/5. Rayner’s rise reflects a belief among punters that she is best placed to unite the party should Starmer step aside. Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has also seen support in the market, trimming to 6/1 from 13/2, while Wes Streeting has drifted to 11/2, suggesting waning confidence in his chances.
Andy Burnham remains in contention at 10/1, although his prospects appeared to have dimmed after Labour blocked him from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election, a move widely seen as closing off his most realistic route back to Westminster at that time. That picture has since changed, with Burnham now confirmed as seeking NEC approval for the Makerfield by-election.
The biggest mover in recent days was Alistair Cairns, who shortened dramatically to 12/1 from 50/1 amid speculation he could emerge as a caretaker figure if Labour opts for stability during a transition period.
William Kedjanyi, Political Betting Analyst at Star Sports, said: “According to the betting, it’s all but over for Keir Starmer. He is now a 1/4 shot to exit Downing Street this year following the departure of Morgan McSweeney, and he’s 1/6 not to be Prime Minister at the next General Election.”
Kedjanyi added: “In the leadership market, Angela Rayner is the standout. She’s firmed up at the top and is now 9/4 to replace Starmer, with Ed Miliband also shortening. Wes Streeting, by contrast, is drifting. There’s increasing talk of Alistair Cairns taking on a caretaker role. As a former military figure, some see him as a steady pair of hands during a period of crisis, which explains why he’s been the biggest mover in the market.”
For the latest Keir Starmer exit date odds, the market has subsequently moved further, with 2026 now priced at 4/9 (69.2% implied probability).
