Author: Dave James

🕒 Last Updated: 21 May 2026 – Polling day is Thursday 18 June 2026. Nominations close today. Odds correct at time of last update.

The Makerfield by-election market has shifted significantly following confirmation that local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd will stand as the Restore Britain candidate. The party entered the market at 50/1 before shortening to 33/1, and has since been cut to 9/1 following a surge of betting support.

Would Restore Britain Split the Reform Makerfield Vote?

Restore Britain began life in 2025 as a political pressure group before formally becoming a party earlier this year following Rupert Lowe’s split from Reform UK. The party positions itself as an alternative voice on the political right and is expected to target disillusioned Reform supporters during the campaign.

The market reaction to Shepherd’s selection has been notable. Betting activity around Restore Britain accelerated rapidly, with punters viewing the 50/1 and 33/1 prices as generous given the party’s potential appeal to right-leaning voters in the constituency. Rupert Lowe is expected to campaign heavily in Makerfield alongside Shepherd, increasing speculation that Restore Britain could damage Reform UK’s chances by splitting support among similar voters.

That scenario would benefit Labour and Andy Burnham in particular. Every percentage point taken away from Reform UK improves Labour’s position in a contest that is already attracting significant national attention. The opening Makerfield market had Labour at 4/6 in a straight fight with Reform, before Restore Britain’s entry changed the picture.

Early indications suggest Burnham’s personal popularity significantly alters the contest beyond what standard party polling would suggest. Research after the Gorton and Denton by-election found substantial numbers of both Reform and Green supporters who said they would have considered backing him personally had he been on the ballot there.

Labour have shortened from 4/6 to 8/13 and Reform have drifted from 5/4 to 7/4 since Shepherd’s candidacy was announced. Much of that movement appears directly linked to Restore Britain’s emergence as a potential disruptive third force. Nominations close today, 21 May, with polling day confirmed for 18 June 2026.

The result will carry weight well beyond Makerfield. Keir Starmer is 1/7 to leave office in 2026 and a Burnham victory would immediately reshape the leadership picture. A Reform win or narrow Labour hold would intensify questions about whether Reform’s general election favouritism is well-founded and accelerate internal pressure for Starmer’s departure regardless.

🕒 Last Updated: 21 May 2026 – Polling day is Thursday 18 June 2026. Nominations close today, 21 May. Odds and market information correct at time of last update.

Labour are priced at 8/13 to hold Makerfield, with Reform UK at 7/4 and Restore Britain now a 9/1 shot following the announcement of local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as their candidate. The contest is scheduled for Thursday 18 June 2026, with nominations closing today, 21 May, and the voter registration deadline on 3 June.

Makerfield By-Election Winner Odds

The by-election was triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons, who formally resigned his seat on 18 May 2026, appointed Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds, to allow Burnham a route back to Parliament. It is the first by-election in over 60 years specifically triggered to provide a seat for a politician not currently in Parliament, the last being the 1965 Leyton by-election called for Patrick Gordon Walker. Burnham, who has lived in the area for 25 years, has confirmed he will contest the seat and has said constituents in Makerfield “have been let down by national politics.”

Reform UK’s candidate is Robert Kenyon, who stood for the party in Makerfield at the 2024 General Election, where he finished second behind Simons. The 2026 local elections saw Reform take 30% of the vote across Greater Manchester, with Labour falling to 23% in the same geography, a result that underlines why this contest is not a formality for Labour despite Burnham’s personal popularity.

Why Makerfield Matters for Andy Burnham

As Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham is not currently an MP. Winning Makerfield is the essential prerequisite for any future Labour leadership bid. He is currently evens favourite to be the next Prime Minister, a market position that depends almost entirely on him returning to the Commons. A win on 18 June would sharply accelerate the pressure on Keir Starmer, who is 1/7 to leave office in 2026.

Burnham was previously blocked by Labour’s NEC from contesting the Gorton and Denton by-election, in a vote that included Starmer himself. That seat was won by the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer, with Reform second and Labour third, a result that forms the backdrop to Simons’ decision to stand aside. Burnham’s camp viewed the NEC block as a deliberate attempt to prevent his return, and the contrast with the welcome he has received in Makerfield adds political colour to what is already a nationally significant contest.

The Restore Britain candidacy adds a further element of uncertainty by potentially splitting right-of-centre votes between Reform and Shepherd’s party, which could benefit Burnham if the anti-Labour vote fragments sufficiently.

🕒 Last Updated: 21 May 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.

Andy Burnham has moved to evens in the next Prime Minister market, from 9/5 just ten days ago and 12/1 in March, following a week of rapid political deterioration for Keir Starmer. Wes Streeting has resigned as Health Secretary, Catherine West has launched a formal stalking-horse leadership bid, and nominations for the Makerfield by-election close today, 21 May, with polling day confirmed for 18 June 2026.

Andy Burnham Next Prime Minister Odds

Burnham’s positioning is distinct in the current Labour field. He combines strong approval among party members with genuine cross-party appeal. Research carried out after the Gorton and Denton by-election found significant numbers of both Reform and Green voters who said they would consider backing him personally. No other Labour figure currently matches that profile. His route to the leadership remains dependent on winning Makerfield, after he was blocked by the NEC from contesting Gorton and Denton. That contest was won by the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer, with Reform second and Labour third, a result that formed the backdrop to Josh Simons stepping aside to create this new opportunity.

The Streeting resignation has changed the picture considerably. His departure was accompanied by a public statement that he had “lost confidence” in Starmer’s leadership, the clearest signal yet from a senior cabinet figure that the Labour leadership is contested ground. Streeting is now positioned to run himself should a contest open, which explains why his market odds have improved at the same time as his departure strengthens Burnham’s case as the more unifying figure.

The Starmer exit date market now prices him at 1/7 to leave in 2026, with July to September the 4/6 favourite window. The market consensus is that Makerfield acts as a staging post. A Burnham win on 18 June would be the most likely single event to accelerate Starmer’s departure and formally open the race. Reform remain odds-on at 10/11 to win the most seats at the next general election, underlining why Labour’s internal situation carries such urgency.

🕒 Last Updated: 21 May 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.

Reform UK are odds-on favourites at 10/11 to win the most seats at the next UK General Election, a position they have held since the May local elections. The latest PollCheck 7-poll moving average (20 May) puts Reform on 27.9% — their highest sustained level — with Conservatives on 18.3% and Labour on 18.1%. The two traditional parties of government are now effectively level in the polls, a scenario that would transform the parliamentary arithmetic. These figures are reflected in the general election odds.

General Election Odds

Reform’s local election performance was the catalyst for the market move to odds-on. The party won the national popular vote and posted significant gains across England, including 30% of the vote across Greater Manchester wards — the same geography where the Makerfield by-election on 18 June will be fought.

The internal Labour crisis has added a second driver to the odds movement. Wes Streeting has resigned as Health Secretary, 90+ Labour MPs have publicly called for Keir Starmer’s resignation, and 72% of Oddschecker bets on the next election date are now backing 2026. A change of Labour leader would not automatically trigger a general election, but the political instability is feeding directly into market pricing.

Andy Burnham is now evens favourite to be the next Prime Minister, having moved sharply from 5/2 earlier this month. Angela Rayner is 9/4 with some bookmakers. The market is increasingly pricing in a scenario where Labour changes leader before the next election — and whether that is enough to close Reform’s lead is the central question now driving activity across the politics betting markets.

William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps has noted that Reform’s local election performance transformed the betting picture overnight, pushing the party into outright favouritism. He also highlighted that pressure on Starmer is being reflected directly in Labour leadership and next Prime Minister betting, with Burnham the standout mover.

🕒 Last Updated: 21 May 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.

Keir Starmer is now as short as 1/7 with Ladbrokes to leave Downing Street in 2026, a dramatic move from 4/9 in April as internal Labour pressure has reached a critical level. The Prime Minister’s reset speech at Coin Street Community Centre failed to steady the party, with Hornsey and Friern Barnet MP Catherine West launching a formal stalking-horse leadership bid within hours of it concluding.

What date will Keir Starmer resign as Labour leader?

William Hill price Starmer at 2/7 to leave as Labour leader before the end of the year, with July to September emerging as the most likely exit window at 4/6. On Oddschecker, 93% of all bets placed on the exit date market backed a 2026 departure, reflecting near-unanimous market opinion on a sitting prime minister less than two years into his first term.

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The pressure has been building since Labour’s catastrophic local elections in May, when the party lost 1,496 councillors to Reform and the Greens. Between 90 and 97 Labour MPs have publicly called for Starmer to resign or set out a timetable for his departure, including former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell and six ministerial aides. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is reported to have asked the Prime Minister directly to provide a timeline for leaving office. Wes Streeting has already resigned as Health Secretary, with his resignation letter stating he had “lost confidence” in Starmer’s leadership.

The stalking-horse bid by Catherine West adds a formal mechanism to what had previously been a campaign of briefings and public statements. Under Labour Party rules, a leadership contest can begin if the leader resigns voluntarily or if a challenger secures nominations from 20% of Labour MPs, currently 81 MPs. Whether West can reach that threshold remains the key near-term question.

Despite the pressure, Starmer has insisted he will not walk away. Senior minister Darren Jones told reporters it was “not inevitable” the Prime Minister would resign, and the bookmakers’ exit window of July to September suggests the market believes a formal challenge or voluntary handover is more likely after the Makerfield by-election on 18 June than before it. A Burnham win would sharpen the leadership picture considerably.

For the latest on who could replace him, see the next Prime Minister odds and the next Labour leader market, where Andy Burnham is now the outright favourite.

🕒 Last Updated: 21 May 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.

Reform UK are now odds-on favourites to win the most seats at the next UK General Election following their dominant performance in the May 2026 local elections. The latest PollCheck 7-poll moving average, updated 20 May, shows Reform leading on 27.9%. Labour and the Conservatives are effectively level on 18.1% and 18.3% respectively, a position that would produce a very different parliament to the 2024 result. The general election odds reflect that shift.

Latest Voting Intention (20 May 2026)

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Next General Election Winner Odds

Reform UK have been the largest party in UK voting intention polls continuously since late 2025. Their May 2026 local election performance, winning the national popular vote and making significant gains including in Greater Manchester, was the event that tightened Reform’s odds from 6/4 to 10/11 overnight.

Labour’s position is complicated by the ongoing leadership crisis. The Conservatives and Labour are now essentially level in the polls for the first time in years, and a potential Labour leadership change, with Andy Burnham now evens favourite to be the next Prime Minister, introduces genuine uncertainty about how Labour’s vote share might move under new leadership. Some models suggest a Burnham-led Labour party could recover sufficient support to challenge Reform more directly, which is partly why his market odds are so short despite him not yet being an MP.

The next general election date market has also attracted attention, with 72% of bets on Oddschecker backing 2026 as the year of the election. An early election is not inevitable, as a change of Labour leader would not automatically trigger one, but the market is clearly pricing in meaningful political volatility well ahead of the scheduled 2029 date. For the latest on when Starmer is expected to leave, he is currently 1/7 to depart in 2026.

🕒 Last Updated: 2 April 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.

Restore Britain are beginning to register in UK polling, with a new YouGov survey placing the party at 8% of the vote, up one point from the previous wave and drawing support from a mix of previous non-voters, Reform supporters and some former Conservatives.

Reform UK continue to lead the voting intention figures for The Times and Sky News on 23%, unchanged from the previous wave. The Greens and Conservatives are level on 19%, with Labour having slipped slightly to 18%. The Liberal Democrats have fallen to 12%, their lowest level recorded by YouGov during this parliament.

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Restore Britain’s 8% polling figure is modest but meaningful in the context of such a close race. When voters were asked how likely they would be to consider backing the party, 16% said they would be either “very” or “somewhat” likely to do so, suggesting further potential for growth as awareness increases. The party’s support is coming partly at the expense of Reform UK, though Reform remain comfortably ahead as the largest party in the poll.

At the margins, smaller parties continue to struggle for traction. Your Party registers less than 1% support, highlighting how difficult it remains for new entrants to break through even in a volatile environment. With multiple parties clustered within a narrow range and voter loyalties continuing to shift, Restore Britain is now firmly part of the wider conversation. For earlier coverage of the party’s formation and initial odds movement, see the original Restore Britain odds analysis.