Makerfield By Election Odds: Restore Britain Split the Reform Vote

The Makerfield by-election market is moving fast, and the direction of travel is clear. Labour have firmed up significantly in recent days and are now the 1/3 favourites to take the Greater Manchester seat, while Reform UK, who were as short as 13/8 just last weekend, have drifted out to 5/2 as momentum builds behind the Labour camp.

Makerfield By-Election Odds

William Hill have the current market priced as follows:

• Labour – 1/3
• Reform UK – 5/2
• Restore Britain – 8/1
• BAR – 250/1

Polling day for the Makerfield by-election is Thursday 18 June 2026. The contest has quickly developed into one of the more closely watched political betting markets of the year.

Why Labour Odds Are Shortening

The shift in the market has been quite striking. Reform had genuine momentum earlier in the week, trading at 13/8 and making it a much more competitive contest on paper, but that has changed considerably over the past few days.

A big part of the story is Andy Burnham. The Greater Manchester Mayor has thrown his weight behind the Labour campaign, and his local profile is considerable. William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps noted that Burnham’s involvement has helped Labour take control of the market, with bettors responding to his backing by piling in on the red side.

For more on Burnham’s wider political ambitions, see our Andy Burnham next Prime Minister odds and the full next Prime Minister market.

What Has Happened to Reform?

Reform’s drift is partly down to Restore Britain’s growing presence in the market. The newer party have been cut from 10/1 to 8/1 in recent days following their candidate announcement, and that has drawn some money away from Farage’s side. When you have two parties competing for a similar pool of anti-Labour votes, it can split the market and benefit the frontrunner, which is exactly what appears to be happening here.

Reform have been riding high nationally after their strong local election showing, and they are currently odds-on favourites for the next general election, but by-elections in traditional Labour heartlands are a different test. Local factors carry more weight, and organisational strength on the ground tends to matter far more than national polling numbers.

For the broader picture on Restore Britain’s national ambitions, see our Restore Britain general election odds.

Can Reform or Restore Britain Cause an Upset?

At 1/3, Labour are firmly in the driving seat, and an upset would be a major story, but by-elections do have a habit of throwing up surprises. The combination of Reform and Restore Britain competing for the same votes could actually help Labour more than it hurts them, particularly if neither party can consolidate the anti-Labour vote behind a single candidate.

Reform at 5/2 still represents a genuine possibility, particularly if their ground game is strong and turnout among Labour supporters is lower than expected. Low turnout by-elections have produced results before that completely defy the national picture, so it would be unwise to entirely rule them out.

Restore Britain at 8/1 is a longer shot, but worth keeping an eye on. Their candidate Rebecca Shepherd has generated some local interest, and the party has shown it can move markets quickly when it gets traction. At those odds, there is a decent return on offer if you think they can cut through in the final stretch.

Overall, Labour look well placed to hold the seat. The market says so, and the political backdrop, with Burnham’s backing and the anti-Labour vote split between two parties, points firmly in the same direction. Polling day is 18 June 2026.

Odds subject to change. Always gamble responsibly. 18+.