Karishma Vijay has emerged as the clear favourite to win The Apprentice 2026, with bookmakers installing her at 11/8 following Harry Clough’s exit from the process. The latest market move comes after another dramatic episode, where Lord Sugar’s rare second-chance task still ended in a firing that has tightened the race for the £250,000 investment.
The candidates were sent to the Isle of Wight after a disappointing week in Hong Kong, tasked with a revised discount buying challenge. While Team Eclipse recovered well to secure the majority of their items, Team Alpha’s approach was heavily criticised in the boardroom. Harry Clough ultimately paid the price for a costly purchasing error, and his departure has significantly reshaped the betting landscape.
With the field narrowing, Karishma Vijay now leads the market at 11/8, giving her an implied probability of 42.1% to win the show. She is followed by Kieran McCartney at 2/1 (33.3%) and Dan Miller at 3/1 (25.0%), with the chasing pack still within striking distance as the competition heads into its final weeks.
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Karishma Vijay | 11/8 | 42.1% |
| Kieran McCartney | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Dan Miller | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Rothna Akhtar | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Priyesh Bathia | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Conor Galvin | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Levi Hague | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Lawrence Rosenberg | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Pascha Myhill | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Karishma’s rise to the top of the betting reflects a series of consistent performances and her ability to avoid the costly mistakes that have seen others fall away. In a format where one poor decision can end a candidate’s journey, her steady approach has made her the standout contender in the eyes of bookmakers.
Attention now turns to the next episode, where candidates will face a high-pressure live TV selling task. Historically, this challenge has proven decisive, exposing weaknesses in communication, confidence and strategy. Strong performances can lead to dramatic swings in the betting, particularly with so few episodes remaining.
The market for the next candidate to be fired is also beginning to take shape. Lawrence Rosenberg is currently the 6/4 favourite (40.0%) to go next after losing five of the last seven tasks. His position looks increasingly vulnerable following criticism in the latest challenge, where he and project manager Kieran McCartney opted to spend time on cost-cutting measures rather than maximising value.
With just four episodes left and nine candidates still in contention, the pressure is mounting. Double or even triple firings are expected as Lord Sugar looks to narrow the field quickly, meaning the betting markets could continue to shift dramatically in the coming weeks.
