🕒 Last Updated: 21 May 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
Reform UK are now odds-on favourites to win the most seats at the next UK General Election following their dominant performance in the May 2026 local elections. The latest PollCheck 7-poll moving average, updated 20 May, shows Reform leading on 27.9%. Labour and the Conservatives are effectively level on 18.1% and 18.3% respectively, a position that would produce a very different parliament to the 2024 result. The general election odds reflect that shift.
Latest Voting Intention (20 May 2026)
| Party | Vote Share (7-poll avg) |
|---|---|
| Reform UK | 27.9% |
| Conservatives | 18.3% |
| Labour | 18.1% |
| Green Party | 14.0% |
| Liberal Democrats | 13.3% |
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Next General Election Winner Odds
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 10/11 | 52.4% |
| Labour | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Conservatives | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Green Party | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Restore Britain | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Liberal Democrats | 28/1 | 3.4% |
Reform UK have been the largest party in UK voting intention polls continuously since late 2025. Their May 2026 local election performance, winning the national popular vote and making significant gains including in Greater Manchester, was the event that tightened Reform’s odds from 6/4 to 10/11 overnight.
Labour’s position is complicated by the ongoing leadership crisis. The Conservatives and Labour are now essentially level in the polls for the first time in years, and a potential Labour leadership change, with Andy Burnham now evens favourite to be the next Prime Minister, introduces genuine uncertainty about how Labour’s vote share might move under new leadership. Some models suggest a Burnham-led Labour party could recover sufficient support to challenge Reform more directly, which is partly why his market odds are so short despite him not yet being an MP.
The next general election date market has also attracted attention, with 72% of bets on Oddschecker backing 2026 as the year of the election. An early election is not inevitable, as a change of Labour leader would not automatically trigger one, but the market is clearly pricing in meaningful political volatility well ahead of the scheduled 2029 date. For the latest on when Starmer is expected to leave, he is currently 1/7 to depart in 2026.
