Pressure on Keir Starmer has intensified after fresh betting markets made the Labour leader just 1/4 to resign in 2026, following the departure of his Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney.
According to the latest odds from UK bookie Star Sports, Starmer is also 1/6 not to be Prime Minister at the next General Election, underlining how quickly confidence in his leadership has ebbed amid growing unrest within the party.
Attention has now turned firmly to who could replace him. Angela Rayner has surged to the head of the market and is the clear favourite to become the next permanent Labour leader, shortening to 9/4 from 13/5. Rayner’s rise reflects a belief among punters that she is best placed to unite the party should Starmer step aside.
Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has also seen support in the market, trimming to 6/1 from 13/2, while Wes Streeting has drifted to 11/2, suggesting waning confidence in his chances.
Andy Burnham remains in contention at 10/1, although his prospects appear to have dimmed after Labour blocked him from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election, a move widely seen as closing off his most realistic route back to Westminster.
The biggest mover in recent days has been Alistair Cairns, who has shortened dramatically to 12/1 from 50/1 amid speculation he could emerge as a caretaker figure if Labour opts for stability during a transition period.
William Kedjanyi, Political Betting Analyst at Star Sports, said the markets paint a bleak picture for the current Prime Minister.
“According to the betting, it’s all but over for Keir Starmer. He is now a 1/4 shot to exit Downing Street this year following the departure of Morgan McSweeney, and he’s 1/6 not to be Prime Minister at the next General Election,” Kedjanyi said.
“In the leadership market, Angela Rayner is the standout. She’s firmed up at the top and is now 9/4 to replace Starmer, with Ed Miliband also shortening. Wes Streeting, by contrast, is drifting.”
He added that Burnham’s moment may have passed, but Cairns is one to watch.
“There’s increasing talk of Alistair Cairns taking on a caretaker role. As a former military figure, some see him as a steady pair of hands during a period of crisis, which explains why he’s been the biggest mover in the market.”
With betting markets now heavily against Starmer surviving the year, Labour appears to be edging closer to a defining moment that could reshape its leadership and direction.
