🕒 Last Updated: 18 May 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
Labour are priced at 4/6 to hold the Makerfield seat, with Reform UK close behind at 5/4. The contest has been triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons stepping aside, potentially creating a route back to Westminster for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who has since confirmed he will seek approval from Labour’s National Executive Committee to stand.
Makerfield By-Election Winner Odds
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 4/6 | 60.0% |
| Reform UK | 5/4 | 44.4% |
| Green | 150/1 | 0.7% |
| Conservatives | 500/1 | 0.2% |
| Liberal Democrats | 500/1 | 0.2% |
Betting activity has been concentrated on Labour and Reform, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether Labour can comfortably defend the constituency. At the 2024 General Election, Labour won Makerfield with 45.2% of the vote, finishing ahead of Reform UK on 31.8%, while the Conservatives dropped to third on 10.9%. Since then, Reform’s strong performances in local elections have increased speculation that the gap could narrow significantly in a by-election scenario.
Why Makerfield Matters for Andy Burnham
The by-election could determine whether Burnham is able to return to frontline Westminster politics. He remains one of the most prominent figures in Labour and continues to feature heavily in betting on the next Prime Minister and next Labour leader markets. As he is not currently an MP, winning a parliamentary seat is essential if he intends to pursue a future leadership bid.
Burnham views Makerfield as a realistic opportunity to re-enter Parliament after previously being blocked from contesting the Gorton and Denton seat, where Labour’s NEC ruled against his candidacy. That contest was eventually won by the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer in a result widely described as seismic. Reform UK finished second with Labour pushed into third, a performance that continues to inform how bookmakers are pricing this race.
Despite Labour’s position as favourites, the contest is far from straightforward. Reform UK performed strongly in local wards covering parts of Makerfield during the 2026 local elections, adding further uncertainty to the race.
Burnham Shortens in Labour Leadership Betting
The Makerfield market has also shifted wider Labour leadership betting. Burnham has attracted strong support in the next Prime Minister market, with bookmakers significantly cutting his odds in recent days. Similar movement has taken place in betting on the next permanent Labour leader, where Burnham has also shortened considerably.
Separately, Keir Starmer’s exit date market currently prices him at 1/5 to leave office in 2026, implying an 83.3% probability. Under Labour Party rules, a leadership contest can begin if the leader resigns or if a challenger secures nominations from 20% of Labour MPs, currently equivalent to 81 MPs.